volatility

The Interesting Thing About Interest Rates

by Dan Robles on February 17, 2010

Money represents human productivity, but the interest on money represents risk. This means that the lender collects interest because that represents the risk that they assume in departing from their money. Meanwhile productivity fluctuates naturally and can be affected by a many external forces.

The problem is that risk can never be negative, therefore interest rates can never be negative – that is called “breaking he buck”. Risk is a measure of volatility, or, “deviations from what is considered normal”. While there is certainly good deviations and bad deviations, there can never be a “negative” deviation from normal – it is a mathematical impossibility, a glitch.

The result is that productivity must always be driven up and up and up – sometimes in unnatural ways, such as forcing consumption. Constant production is unacceptable – it must always increase. Vacations, free time, family time, and leisure are not acceptable. What if we had a currency that could accommodate a negative interest rate?

Read More

Critical Value of Conversational Currency

by Dan Robles on September 25, 2009

basket-of-world-currenciesCan the value of conversation fluctuate when compared to a “basket of conversational currencies”?  The translation is as follows;  If several conversations are taking place at the same time, does yours hold more or less value depending on the value of the others?

Same as a Lie?

If you ask a newspaper whose lead story was trumped by an unexpected celebrity death, the answer is yes.  If you tell a political activist whose rational message is lost to  more radical activists, the answer is yes.  If your speech is interrupted by a heckler, the answer is yes.  If you are caught lying about your Nuke Plant, the outcome is unintentionally the same – a loss of credibility, value, equity, and associated increase in risk, volatility, etc.

In today’s world of floating currencies, almost every currency rises and falls against other currencies at one time or another. But a currency that is persistently weak or continually falling relative to others presents a problem. If the dollar’s value were to continue to fall to new lows, eventually this would trigger rising inflation pressures. That’s because inflation can be defined as the loss of purchasing power of a unit of currency.

Inflationary Pressure on Conversational Currency?

Likewise, weak and falling conversational currencies are also bad for growth, since they scare away investment by another conversant. Who wants to invest time and knowledge in a conversation if there exists the real possibility that one’s investment will be eroded by a falling currency? At the very least investors require special incentives (i.e., premiums) to invest in an conversation with a weak currency.

Incentives Packages of Social Media Space

Weak conversational currencies are symptomatic of a variety of factors: cheap talk, lack of references, weak economic growth prospects, lack of confidence in the other participants, weak currency demand, and bad fiscal policies (e.g., wasteful discussion, high cost of participation, low quality venue or presentation). Strong conversational currencies, on the other hand, typically reflect tight topic control, vetting policy, strong growth prospects, confidence among participants, strong currency demand, and good fiscal policies.

The Critical Breath Mint

For better or worse, in order to “mint” conversational Currency, a discussion must be made accessible to largest audience possible.  The discussion must also be directed to those most “qualified” to engage in the discussion. When the value of the conversational currency reaches a low level threshold in either factor, the discussion ends with no resolution to continue and no tangential discussions taking place.  This can often be attributed to disruptive innovation making old conversations obsolete.  But it can also happen to worthy conversations infected by a parasite such as spam, hecklers, radicalization, flame wars, and emotional versus rational articulation, vendetta, sabotage, etc.

Critical Level of Conversational Currency

The critical level of conversational currency is where supply and demand cross.  The value of conversational currency will be determined by the ability to match the most worthy knowledge surplus with the most worthy knowledge deficit.  We use the financial analogy because the idea is the same – a currency is a currency.  Many of the same rules, methods, and calculus hold.  What is missing in Social Media are an inventory and accounting system for knowledge assets. While such systems are emerging on FaceBook, Twitter, Linkedin, etc.  Some intervention is needed to integrate a social media system we can bank on, literally and figuratively.

Read More

The Value of Social Currency

July 9, 2009

Roughly 10% of the US gross Domestic Product can be attributed directly to the process of evaluating or examining transactions. The ability to foresee the result of specific knowledge assets deployed to specific business conditions is the Holy Grail of entrepreneurs.

Read the full article →

The Next Global Currency

May 26, 2009

Charging interest on money was at one time illegal. The concept of “interest” was legitimized by the argument that lenders needed to be compensated for the risk that they assumed. As such, currency is married to risk and not necessarily actual productivity.

Read the full article →

The New Economic Paradigm: Part 7; Monetization of Knowledge Assets

April 20, 2009

We have specified a structure for a new economic paradigm by simply integrating the the knowledge economy into the same structure as the financial system. The result is a completely new way for entrepreneurs to create wealth.

Read the full article →

Putting the System Back into Social

March 12, 2009

Social Media is a demanding master with the uncanny ability to determine the absence or presence of checks and balances.  As a self correcting market, what you do not say can have a greater impact than what you do say. Of Profit and Peril: There are great perils in getting social media wrong and great [...]

Read the full article →

Options, Options, What Are My Options?

December 20, 2008

This article continues a discussion of a valuation technique for social media

Read the full article →