The Next Economic Paradigm

Tag: innovation economic

Nobel Prize Goes to Social Media

Well, not explicitly, but given the firestorm over the Nobel Peace Prize, the Economics Prize ought not go unnoticed.   The Irony is that that just because we don’t know how to model some economic phenomena does not mean that the impact should be ignored.  Whether you agree with the Peace Prize decision or not, clearly the impact of Social Media cannot be ignored.

Many Students of Social Media have long argued that the shortcomings of government and corporatism are more and more often becoming filled by innovation in Social Media.  Likewise, the notable successes of Democratic Government and Corporatism should be preserved.  Thereby, we form the basis of Social Capitalism.

Two American economists, Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson, who study economic governance and the way decisions are made outside the markets, were awarded Monday with the Nobel Prize in economics.

Ms. Ostrom, who teaches at Indiana University in Bloomington, Ind., is the first woman to win the prize.  The judges cited Ms. Ostrom’s “analysis of economic governance, especially the commons,” the way in which natural resources are managed as shared resources. Ms. Ostrom argues, “Over time, people often develop institutions, social networks and ways of interacting that solves the problem.” Even her critics agree that what’s important, is that Ms. Ostrom’s work points out the importance of the networks that many economists had ignored, in part, because they couldn’t come up with elegant models to describe how they worked.

On the other hand, Mr. Williamson, 77, who teaches at the University of California at Berkeley argues that some decisions are [best meant to be made within the corporate structure.  “What he found was that many economic decisions that standard theory said would be more efficiently left to the market place were actually better left within a firm.”].  In short, even competitors form tacit social networks to do what is in the best interest of markets.

The Nobel Committee Agreed, “Competitive markets work relatively well because buyers and sellers can turn to other trading partners in case of dissent,” the Nobel judges said. “But when market competition is limited, firms are better suited for conflict resolution than markets.”

The bottom line is that just because you we don’t know how to model economic phenomena does not mean that their impact can be ignored.  President Obama, whether you like him or not, has had a profound social and economic impact that is not yet clearly understood.  The objective then is to at least try and understand the impact of social media.

Given the statements of the Norwegian committee that awards the prizes, Alfred Nobel would agree that the currency, therefore, is the conversation.

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The Currency of Transformation

The words “conversation” and “convertibility” are really quite similar.

Information, knowledge and innovation are distinct phases of human intellect which are profoundly related.  The vehicle for transformation across these phases is the “conversation”.  As the medium of exchange, the conversation acts as a currency.   The speed at which these exchanges take place defines the value of a market – a good party is where everyone is engaged.  A good time is of the essence.

Changes in the value of the market defines the potential for value creation through conversation – a great party pulls more people into engagement and becomes a social movement; i.e., a marketing success.

Currency (money) and Current (time) and Current (force) are similar too!

Conversations exist as a state of shared information tied to a common and progressing theme.  The internet enables the propagation of conversations from two persons to millions of people.  The propagation of conversations is dependent on interest rates of the audience.  The rate of propagation accelerates with the transformation of information into knowledge by others in it’s path.  People are driven to entrepreneurial action when the alignment of information matches the environment that they observe.

Conversation is Currency

Currencies come in many different forms and the best ones are convertible – or can be transformed – into other currencies.  Our objective is to convert social currency, creative currency, and intellectual currency into a universal currency such as, but not necessarily, money.

Anything of value such as an option to exercise an action at a later date, or an equity position in the actions of others, or a mentorship opportunity with a great teacher are all convertible currencies.  Of course, this is nothing new; we pay money to buy a book, take a class, invest in start-ups, and teach our children.

An End to a Means:

What is new is that social media allows us to convert the other currencies before, after, and in between the conversion to money.  The option to convert to money is simply an option like any other option, not necessarily a means to an end.

Obviously we could pay money to buy a book, use that book to teach our children and hope our children can start up a new company, etc.  However, suppose we could pay money to buy a book, improve the book by adding information shared by others, teach hundreds of other people how to apply the ideas to their start-up, take an “knowledge equity” position in those hundreds of start ups, have access to the data that they produce, and write a book that improves the likelihood of successful start-ups.

The Interesting Thing About Interest Rates

The next economic paradigm will introduce thousands of convertible currencies in the form of infinite conversations.  Those currencies will be converted in infinite combinations for infinite applications each adding value to the conversation.  Relational data aggregation will match most worthy currencies and social vetting will manage the production process. The corporate silo will no longer form; therefore the exploitation of the creativity class will end.  Interest is not measured in terms of risk, but rather in terms of productivity where deficit spending is impossible. This is the currency of transformation.

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The Second Impression of Social Media

As we move away from the ROI valuation model for social media and adopt a more dynamic ‘options’ analysis, a different picture emerges.  People are trading options; that is, the right without the obligation to exercise an action.  The next economic paradigm will emerge as a function of people exercising their options.

What are you doing here?

On the surface, there appears to be a lot of ‘feel-gooding’ on linkedin, Facebook, and Twitter, etc.  It is easy to brush them off as trivial, non-productive, and delusional.  I often fall victim spending too much time on these devices and have asked myself, simply: “why?”

Computer Enabled Society

At second glance, however, I have personally developed a few extremely profound, important and valuable relationships through “computer enabled society”.  People who I have never met in person have stepped way out on a limb to help me along.  As a result, I have given these people the option to access my network and they have done the same for me.  Our common purpose makes each relevant and valuable to the other and each are willing to support, mentor, and elevate the other.  We exercise options together.

Impressive Results

The distinction is that what once was a “first impression” – firmness of handshake, fashion, and physical appearance – has become the “second Impression”.

What was once the “second impression” – intellect, wisdom, talent and generosity – has become the “first impression”.

People exercise their options accordingly; first impressions leads us to action.

Evolution or Revolution?

Social media does not care if you are rich, poor, young or old, beautiful or homely.  It does not care about the color of your skin, fat or thin, physical ability or disability.  It does not care what kind of car you drive, clothes you wear, or the size of your home. Or does it?

For every revolution, there is a corresponding evolution.

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Social Clipping and the Amazing Disappearing Economy

In the early 1990’s, the NAFTA Mutual Recognition Document (MRD) for engineering professionals was the first modern attempt to treat knowledge like a financial instrument. Unfortunately it failed because of a tiny little flaw that I call ‘social clipping’.

Most trade agreements that followed were modeled after NAFTA and, as such, inherited the clipping flaw.  The flaw is that ‘products’, but not the knowledge assets that created them, are mobile in a global economy.

The MRD handed the knowledge economy to Mexico on a silver platter; but they turned it down.  The government did not want to give their engineers “wings” because they were afraid that they would fly away.  Instead, Mexico chose to sell their extraordinary young engineering talent off cheap to meet quotas promised to Asian, European, and American companies to relocate huge manufacturing plants to the country. Today, Mexico competes with China in a race to the bottom of a manufacturing economy and almost no indigenous design industries.

Two-way street:

Back then, the protesters raged about an influx of cheap foreign engineers to the US.  But many US engineers saw that Mexico needed everything that engineers make – roads, bridges, infrastructure, etc. The needs were endless and the objective was clear; to increase human productivity in Mexico was to create real and sustainable wealth.  Maybe then, the citizens would not need to fly away.

These infrastructure projects could have been funded because the Professional Engineering License behaves like a financial instrument mitigating project risks (so that nothing “disappears”). Only then banks would lend and insurers would insure.  The transfer of knowledge and accountability to Mexico would have been extraordinary; the relationships, profound; their development progress, astonishing.

The Disappearing Economy

But the MRD died by clipping.  Mexican Engineers would have been required to take the same engineering examinations as US engineer.  The government refused citing concern that they could not pass. So, in 1994-1997, this author directed a large comparative education project sending over 250 engineers to the US professional engineering examination (EIT).  The Mexican Pass rate was extraordinary – they were easily comparable to the US pass rate in most subjects and flat-out superior in mathematics.  There was nothing wrong with Mexican engineers, or the culture; there was something wrong with the financial system that keeps them invisible.

Knowledge is Power

As the story goes, Mexico has a family oriented culture where hierarchy is often based on seniority; a common examination may favor recent graduates.  It would be inappropriate for a young engineer to have authority over a more senior engineer.  Dig a little deeper and the real problem was power. In Mexico, power is concentrated among very few people.  It would have been unacceptable for transparency to exist.

We are facing a similar situation in America today.  Power has been steadily consolidating over the years.  A huge and fast stimulus package will enter a financial system with a shortage of vetting institutions. There is a strong pull toward ‘business as usual’ – creating J-O-B-S; not necessarily more entrepreneurs, engineers, or mentors, and certainly not empowering whistle blowers.  In the knowledge economy, Americans salaries are pegged to off-shore outsourcing. This is a game that we can no longer win playing by the rules.

Social clipping

As we have seen with less developed nations; when people are held below a certain economic level, they fail to organize for innovation, social change, entrepreneurship, and value creation because they are too busy trying to pay off debt and feed their families.  Social capital, creative capital, and intellectual capital are muted; that’s when the magic of innovation disappears. That’s social clipping.

America must move on to the next level of economic growth.  The Innovation economy is a game we can win playing by new rules. Government must trust the people, empower social media, and not clip our wings with an outdated economic model.

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